World natural rubber prices increased
The Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Market Bulletin issued on October 31, 2023 of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that in the third quarter of 2023, world rubber prices recovered compared to the second quarter of 2023. Natural rubber prices have increased again since mid-August 2023 and continue to increase in October 2023.
The increase in rubber prices continues to be supported by the gradual improvement of production activities in China, helping to reduce rubber inventories. In addition, China has many policies to promote the electric vehicle industry, which also have a positive impact on total rubber demand.
Meanwhile, China's tire exports tend to increase in both output and price, leading to increased demand for imported rubber in the first 3 quarters of 2023. Rubber prices are expected to remain high from now on. until the end of the year, thanks to high oil prices and recovering demand from China.
In October 2023, rubber prices on major exchanges in Asia fluctuated. Although they decreased in recent sessions, prices still increased sharply compared to the previous month.
At the Osaka Exchange (OSE) in Japan, the price of RSS3 rubber delivered for November 2023 futures increased to the highest level of the month on October 19, 2023 (to 274.5 Yen/kg), after Prices have decreased again in recent sessions, but compared to last month, prices still increased sharply. On October 27, 2023, RSS3 rubber price for November 2023 futures delivery was at 252.4 Yen/kg (equivalent to 1.68 USD/kg), an increase of 11.5% compared to the end of September 2023 and an increase of 14.5% over the same period in 2022.
At the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), spot rubber prices increased to the highest level of the month on October 17, 2023 (to 13,480 CNY/ton), then decreased slightly again, but still increased compared to the end of last month. On October 27, 2023, the near-term delivery price of RSS3 rubber was at 13,070 CNY/ton (equivalent to 1.78 USD/kg), up 3.9% compared to the end of September 2023 and up 7.6%. compared to the same period in 2022.
The week to October 20, 2023, the amount of natural rubber inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 246,145 tons, an increase of 2,395 tons compared to the previous week; The amount of goods collected in warehouses was 225,180 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons compared to the previous week. Rubber inventory No. 20 is 76,104 tons, an increase of 3,326 tons; Warehouse imports were 73,282 tons, an increase of 2,319 tons compared to the previous week.
In Thailand, rubber prices increased sharply compared to the previous month. On October 27, 2023, RSS3 rubber price offered at 60.79 Baht/kg (equivalent to 1.68 USD/kg), up 8.6% compared to the end of September 2023 and up 13.6%. compared to the same period in 2022. Since the beginning of this year's mining season, Thailand's output has decreased by more than 10% each month compared to the corresponding month of the previous year. This is largely due to disruptions in exploitation due to almost continuous rain across key rubber growing regions of Thailand.
In the first 9 months of 2023, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding mixed rubber) reached nearly 1.99 million tons, down 23% over the same period in 2022. Of which, the total amount of rubber Export standards reached nearly 1.12 million tons, down 15%; Smoked rubber exports reached 271 thousand tons, down 21%; Rubber latex exports reached 585 thousand tons, down 33% over the same period in 2022.
In the first 9 months of 2023, Thailand's natural rubber exports to China reached 766 thousand tons, down 3% compared to the same period in 2022. Of which, the total amount of standard rubber exported to China reached 497 thousand tons. thousand tons, an increase of 23%; Total exports of smoked rubber to China reached 58 thousand tons, an increase of 32%; The total amount of rubber exported to China reached 212 thousand tons, down 35% over the same period in 2022.
Domestic prices recovered, creating momentum for businesses to accelerate
In the third quarter of 2023, raw rubber latex prices across the country will also fluctuate, prices tend to increase following the trend of the international market.
The upward trend continues in October 2023 thanks to the prospect of new economic stimulus measures in Japan and China. In October 2023, at rubber companies, the price of latex being purchased is in the range of 265-310 VND/degree.
Domestically, the recovery of rubber prices significantly supports production and business activities of businesses in the industry
Of which, Phu Rieng Rubber Company purchased at 285-305 VND/degree, an increase of 20 VND/degree compared to September 2023. Phuoc Hoa Rubber Company purchases at 308-310 VND/degree, an increase of 15 VND/degree compared to September 2023. Binh Long Rubber Company purchases at 265-275 VND/degree. Ba Ria Rubber Company purchases at 285-295 VND/degree, an increase of 20 VND/degree compared to September 2023.
In the last 2 months, rubber prices have recovered significantly supporting production and business activities of businesses in the industry.
It is forecasted that in the next quarter, the rubber industry will gradually improve due to the recovery of demand from major markets, especially the Chinese market, helping rubber prices increase in the context of oil prices likely to stay at a high level. .
Given the current clear price and demand advantages, Vietnamese rubber exporters need to have a strategy to boost exports, especially to the Chinese market in the near future. Along with that, businesses should proactively increase the proportion of processed rubber rather than raw rubber to increase export value. Rubber exports from now until the end of the year are expected to improve in both quantity and value.
