Thailand, which accounts for 34.2% of world NR production in 2021, exported 3.034 million tonnes of NR in the January-August 2022 period, up 10.3% year-on-year. Product structure to August this year's natural rubber (NR) output of Thailand, the world's largest NR producer, may increase by 11.7%, reaching 5.4 million tons, according to estimates. based on exports increased in August. including 38% TSR (block rubber), 33% compound rubber, 15% latex and 10% RSS shown in Table 1 compared to the corresponding figures for three years before.
Table 1. Structure of NR products exported from Thailand from January to August (thousand tons)
Source: Ministry of Finance of Thailand
After growing 10.3% through August, the period from September to December is the peak production season for NR. Even assuming average export performance, Thailand could still export at least NR 1,566 million tonnes during these four months. This figure only increased by 5.4% over the same period last year. This predicted export volume is low, the reality could be higher. Even assuming such a low volume of exports, total exports for the whole year would be 4.6 million tons, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year (Table 2).
Table 2. Annual export volume of NR from 2019 to 2021 and expected exports in 2022 (thousand tons)
Source: Ministry of Finance of Thailand (Data from September to December 2022 as predicted by the author)
Domestic consumption of NR in Thailand is expected to accelerate in 2022 mainly due to the consumption of latex by some rubber gloves and medical products manufacturing facilities. The new plants and capacity additions to pre-existing plants are expected to lift domestic NR consumption in Thailand to around 140,000 tonnes per year. In that case, Thailand is likely to consume around 840,000 tonnes of NR in 2022, an increase of 19.8%.
Total exports (X) and domestic consumption (C) match output (P) in a normal year in Thailand. Although the two (i.e. X + C and P) have diverged over the two pandemic years (2020 and 2021), they are still closely similar if the averages of the past three years are used. This point is clearly shown in Table 3. Average of X + C for 2019 to 2021: 4.792 million tons (rounded to 4.8 million). Average P for 2019 to 2021: 4.825 million tons (rounded to 4.8 million). The sum of exports and domestic consumption (X + C) can be considered a reliable estimate of output. Based on this basis, Thailand's NR output in 2022 could reach 5,440 million tons (exports: 4,600 million tons, consumption: 0.840 million tons), an increase of 11.7%. In absolute terms, output in 2022 will be 564,000 tons higher than the previous year.
Table 3. Thailand's exports, domestic consumption and NR output from 2019 to 2022 (thousand tons)
* Production figures for 2019 to 2021 are official figures reported by the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives. The number for 2022 is prorated by taking the sum of X and C and rounding the number.
Thailand has had three consecutive years of unusual output reductions. NR production in Thailand was impacted in 2019 due to severe flooding in the South, and in 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic resulting in reduced demand and severe shortages of migrant workers due to restrictions on NR production in Thailand. Cross-border travel restrictions have prevented migrant workers from returning to Thailand from neighboring countries. More specifically, the 11.7% increase in output is largely seen as a return to normal after the floods of 2019; and the pandemic hit in 2020 and 2021. Compared to 2018, the projected absolute production increase in 2022 is only 427,000 tons, equivalent to an average annual growth of 2.1% from 2018. to 2022 (Output in 2018: 4,973 million tons, 2022: 5,400 million tons). Thailand obtained an average yield of 1,495 kg/ha/year in 2018 (a normal production year). Thus, the average production of 1,540 kg/ha/year is expected to increase by only 45 kg in the period of 4 years in 2022.
There were 462,000 hectares of uneconomical rubber removed in Thailand between 2016 and 2021. To encourage farmers to cut down low-yielding rubber trees and switch to food crops, the Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) has offered attractive financial incentives at around $3,500/ha. The removal of a large area of low-yielding rubber has a significant positive effect on average yield. In other words, the 45 kg improvement in average yield over the 4-year production period should be seen as the result of the Government's development intervention.
Regarding the effects of weather and diseases on NR production, Thailand has experienced many heavy rains and floods this year. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, Thailand received 24% more rain than average from January 1 to September 25. However, rain and flooding were mainly limited to the northern regions, northeastern and central regions, these regions are less important for NR supply. More than 50% of Thailand's NR supply comes from the south. The provinces heavily affected by rain and floods this year account for less than 20% of the country's total NR supply. More specifically, climate-induced mining disruptions have been less severe in the current year than in previous years. The incidence of leaf drop is less severe in Thailand than in Indonesia. Only less than 150,000 hectares (about 4% of the total area) were infected with the fungus. Unlike the case of Indonesia, the Government of Thailand, through the Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT), provided timely support to farmers to prevent the spread, reduce the intensity of infection and the recurrence of the disease. pandemic.
JOM JACOB – NGUYEN ANH NGHIA
(Vietnam Rubber Research Institute)
