The Vietnam Rubber Group forecasts that rubber consumption is still weak, the export price of this product will be difficult to recover in the second half of 2023 and at least from 2024 onwards will be more stable. as rubber prices will go up.
The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) estimated that Vietnam's rubber exports in June reached about 180,000 tons, equivalent to 239 million USD, up 54% in volume and 51% in value compared to May. Compared to June 2022, rubber exports decreased by 4% in volume and 23% in value.
Accumulated in the first 6 months of this year, rubber exports reached about 766,000 tons, equivalent to more than 1 billion USD, down 3% in volume and 23% in value over the same period in 2022.
Export price of rubber in June was at $1,327/ton, down 2% compared to May and down 20% compared to June 2022. On average, in the first 6 months of the year, the export price of rubber was at US$1,370/ton, down 21% over the same period in 2022.
Vietnam Rubber Group (VRG) believes that China has opened its economy, but consumption is still slow. Most of the rubber products are for consumption, only a few are used for the production of truck tires.
With the situation of economic recession, high inflation, people tighten their consumption, leading to the demand for rubber still cannot be high. Consumption is still weak, VRG forecasts that from now until the end of 2023, export rubber prices will hardly recover. VRG expects that from 2024 onwards, it will be more stable, the demand as well as the price of rubber will go up.
According to industry experts, the world's demand for natural rubber is still in an uptrend and the supply gap is lower than demand is a great opportunity for Vietnam to increase natural rubber output, increase export turnover. export.
According to the Import-Export Department, in the first 5 months of 2023, Vietnam's exported rubber products are mainly a mixture of natural and synthetic rubber (HS 400280), SVR 10, SVR 3L, RSS3, Latex, SVR CV60, SVR 20...
In which, the mixture of natural rubber and synthetic rubber (HS 400280) is still the most exported product, accounting for nearly 70% of the country's total rubber exports, with 392,450 tons, equivalent to 539 million USD, up 11.5% in volume but down 12% in value over the same period in 2022.
Exports of this item to China accounted for 99.82% of the total amount of natural rubber and synthetic rubber exports, with 391,740 tons, equivalent to 357 million USD, up 12% in volume but down 11.5 % in value over the same period in 2022.
In the first 5 months of 2023, most of the exported rubber categories decreased in both volume and value compared to the same period in 2022.
Only the export of a few types of rubber still grew well over the same period in 2022, including RSS1, regenerated rubber, SVR CV40, SVR 5… However, these types only accounted for a small proportion. in total rubber exports of Vietnam.
